His actions as health secretary could lead to widespread vaccine shortages, illness, death — and personal enrichment.

My editor at the New Republic recently asked me what I thought of the latest news on vaccines.

He was referring to the decision by Robert F. Kennedy Jr., secretary of health and human services, to fire 17 independent vaccine advisers, representing decades of knowledge and expertise, and replace them almost entirely with people who are inexperienced at best; some have actively advocated against vaccines. 

I sent him the following predictions:

• All routine childhood vaccine recommendations will become “shared decision-making with health providers,” as they did with the Covid shots. The market will contract.
• Autism will be added to the list of compensable vaccine injuries, opening up vaccine makers to an onslaught of lawsuits.
• Between less uptake and more litigation, vaccine makers will pull these vaccines from the U.S. market.
• Then, after a few years, we’ll start seeing major outbreaks, and we’ll try to produce and distribute more vaccines — at a much higher cost.

This was all based on months of reporting and hours of conversation with experts. Even so, I wondered: was I being a doomer?

I called up more experts, and they told me that not only was it a plausible scenario; it might get even worse than I expected. 

I wrote about all of this for the New Republic last week.

But there was one detail that stood out to me, and I wanted to highlight it here. 

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has made $2.5 million from lawsuits against vaccine makers. That’s on top of his book sales and the salary and speaking fees he drew as the head of the most prominent anti-vaccine organization in the country, and it’s separate from his own lawsuits against pharmaceutical companies.

Unlike RFK Jr., I make no money off this endeavor, and I never refer you to third parties to make a commission. Sign up for Not a Doctor now to receive more free updates on health, science, and technology.

Here’s how it worked, according to Elizabeth Warren, who spoke about these issues back at Kennedy’s hearing in January:

“In the past two years, you’ve raked in two and a half million dollars from a law firm called Wisner Baum. You go online, you do commercials to encourage people to sign up with Wisner Baum, to join lawsuits against vaccine makers.

And for everyone who signs up, you personally get paid. And if they win their case, you get 10% of what they win. So if you bring in somebody who gets $10 million, you walk away with million dollars.

Kennedy has made a total of $2.5 million with this arrangement, according to his financial disclosures.

And the possibility exists that he could make much, much more after he’s done dismantling public health. Warren continued:

“You won’t go to work for a drug company after you leave HHS. But you and I both know there’s another way to make money.”

Kennedy is now in a position where he can create more pathways for people to sue vaccine makers — and, once he leaves HHS, he could get referral fees for all of those lawsuits.

I wrote more in my TNR article about Warren’s detailed predictions for what Kennedy might do to weaken vaccine protections and wreak great damage on the health of Americans.

But I wanted to highlight this aspect of his finances because, often, people ask me what motivates Kennedy. Is he a true believer? Is he in it for the attention and political clout? Is it all a grift?

I can’t speak to his motivations. But it’s clear Kennedy has a significant financial stake in undermining vaccines. And in a few short months, he’s already done incredible damage.

Kennedy and other officials “essentially took a machete to our public health institutions, and fixing that and rebuilding trust is going to take a while,” said Dorit Reiss, professor at UC Hastings College of Law. “It will take decades, not years, to fix the damage.”

–Vaccine Shortages. Viral Outbreaks. Widespread Illness. More Death. The New Republic

In the meantime, as Elizabeth Warren concluded at the hearing:

“Kids might die. But Robert Kennedy can keep cashing in.”

Got tips or ideas for what I should cover next? Get in touch via email (melodyaschreiber@gmail.com) or Signal (melodyschreiber.06).

Top image: Child patients sleep in cots. City of Minneapolis Archives